March is a time of excitement and surprises, whether in the NCAA's annual basketball tournament with its nail-biting finishes and unexpected successes, or in the equally thrilling arena of selective college admissions. This time of year, a flurry of press releases from universities across the nation proclaimed an unprecedented number of applications and correspondingly lower acceptance rates than ever before.
EXPLORING THE TREND OF DECREASING ACCEPTANCE RATES
Colby College's acceptance rate for the incoming Class of 2027 stands at a mere 6%, marking a further drop from the previous year's already historically low rate. Interestingly, despite a 5% increase in the number of applications, Colby has decided to accept 100 fewer students. This decision is likely in response to a larger than anticipated incoming Class of 2026.
New York University (NYU) continues to make headlines, breaking its own records consistently for the past 16 years. The Class of 2027 saw almost 120,000 hopeful applicants, marking a 13% increase from last year's impressive figures. This included approximately 22,000 Early Decision applications, a 14% increase from the previous year. The outcome? NYU’s acceptance rate has plummeted to a record-low 8% overall, a significant drop from the 12.2% for the Class of 2026.
The University of Notre Dame made history this year with a record-low acceptance rate of 11.9% from a pool of 28,351 hopeful applicants, as stated by Micki Kidder, the Vice President for Undergraduate Enrollment. Notably, the regular decision cycle witnessed a growth of 2% compared to the previous year, while the REA cohort experienced a striking 25% increase.
Tufts University registered an acceptance rate of 9.5% this year, marking the second consecutive year that the number of applications for undergraduate admission exceeded 34,000. The university's popularity among students also showed a considerable increase, reflected in a 6% rise in Early Decision applications from last year and a 37% surge from three years ago.
Yale University experienced a significant growth of 4.4% in its applicant pool, reaching a high of 52,250 students - the largest in the university's history. The admit rate also decreased to a record-low of 4.35%. The Class of 2027 saw an almost 50% rise in applicants when compared to the Class of 2024. The university's decision to implement and extend its test-optional policy due to the COVID-19 pandemic was highlighted by the Dean of Admissions, Jeremiah Quinlan, as a key factor behind this surge.
The University of Connecticut (UConn) noted a considerable increase in applications for the Class of 2027, with over 48,000 applications, a significant increase from the roughly 43,000 applications received the previous year. This pattern signifies the University's growing attractiveness as each year's numbers surpass the previous.
The University of Southern California (USC) made news when it introduced an early action option for the first time and announced on Twitter that it had received a staggering 81,000 applications, marking a 17% increase in the overall application volume to reach record-breaking levels.
The University of Virginia (UVA) noted in its release that during this historic application cycle, a record-breaking 56,439 people applied to the University, with Virginians making up 27% of the applicants. This number signifies a steady increase from 50,962 applications last year and 48,011 in 2021.
EXPLORING THE DATA
Now, let's delve into the factors that are escalating application numbers and decreasing acceptance rates. It's evident that the changes in testing policies during the pandemic have been a major catalyst for the significant growth in applications, particularly for the Class of 2025. Institutions have always dedicated resources to enlarge their applicant pools; however, this effort has now been ramped up considerably. Schools now invest heavily in recruitment strategies, employing everything from tour guides and social media influencers to virtual events and globetrotting admissions officers. They also engage data-driven external firms that specialize in targeted student recruitment. While some of this pool-expanding work serves to encourage underrepresented students to consider higher education, the push for ever-increasing application numbers seems to be more about institutional prestige rather than the best interests of students or the workload of admissions officers.
SIGNIFICANCE OF NON-BINDING EARLY ACTION
Higher education institutions employ a variety of tactics to transform potential students into actual applicants. One such tactic is flexible early action (EA) programs. Take the University of Southern California (USC), for example, which recently introduced a non-binding EA option to its admissions process. This move attracted a whopping 40,000 applicants, leading to a 17% increase in overall applications. Meanwhile, Northeastern University, which also offers a non-binding EA program and doesn't require an admissions supplement, saw its applications increase by 50% to over 96,000 within a few years. As a result, its acceptance rate dropped from roughly 18% to 6.7%.
Prominent public universities like the University of Virginia (UVA) and the University of Michigan have also noticed an increase in out-of-state applications via the non-binding EA program, thereby boosting the total volume of applications. This year, UVA set a new record with 56,439 applicants, a 10% increase from last year, primarily driven by out-of-state EA applications. While UVA, as a state school, primarily serves Virginian residents, it employs the non-binding EA strategy to expand its pool of applicants. This is evident as 75% of UVA's EA applicants are out-of-state students, who, however, constitute only 56% of those accepted through EA.
CAMPUS OVERPOPULATION AND YIELD ESTIMATION
Overpopulation on campus, generally caused by unforeseen increases in yield from the previous admissions cycle, can prompt institutions to reduce their admission offers in the subsequent year to alleviate strain on already packed dorms, dining halls, and other facilities. For instance, Colby College's record-low admission rate this year is partially due to its decision to accept 100 fewer students compared to the previous year. Similarly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) experienced a significant yield increase for the Class of 2026, leading to an all-time low in the number of students admitted for the Class of 2027, totaling just 1,259.
Furthermore, as previously noted, the use of binding early decision (ED) programs enables colleges and universities to secure a substantial segment of their first-year students—commonly 40-50% of their incoming class. As the ED process necessitates a commitment to attend, the applicant pools for these programs are typically smaller and self-selected. Although many favored students apply in the ED round (particularly recruited athletes and legacies), it's irrefutable that highly qualified students applying early have significantly better admission prospects. This is because colleges aim to increase their yield—the ratio of admitted students who enroll—as higher yields enhance their appeal, thereby attracting more formidable applicants. Binding ED plans also facilitate colleges in accurately forecasting their yield, which is vital for managing class sizes, dorm room allotments, and revenue streams.
ON THE OTHER HAND...
Amherst College recently noted a decrease of 14.2 percent in applications compared to the substantial numbers seen in the previous two years. Out of the 12,700 applications received this year, only 9 percent were accepted - marking a slight increase from last year's 7 percent acceptance rate.
Columbia University, having fallen from the 2nd to the 18th position in the US News and World Report rankings due to inaccurate data submission and ensuing controversy, experienced a 9 percent drop in early decision applications and over a 5 percent drop in total applications. The decline in ranking and negative media attention seems to have impacted this year's application volumes.
For those who had their hopes set on Harvard University but didn't get an acceptance offer, there may be some solace in knowing that the university's application volume decreased by 7 percent, and the acceptance rate increased marginally to 3.4 percent.
MIT, which brought back its standardized testing requirement this year, saw a 20 percent decrease in applications, receiving only 26,914. Despite this decrease, the highly competitive nature of MIT remained unchanged with an acceptance rate of 4.7 percent, still making it an institution of high demand.
UCLA, after reaching a peak last year with around 150,000 applications, noted a slight drop to approximately 146,000 for the Class of 2027, marking a decrease of 2.6 percent. Similarly, UC Berkeley experienced a 2.3 percent decrease in applications, falling from last year's growth of 14 percent to 128,192 applications. The decrease was primarily observed among out-of-state and international students.
Williams College, despite having the largest early decision applicant pool in its history and its lowest acceptance rate on record, saw regular decision applications decrease by nearly 25 percent from the previous year. The college managed to maintain an overall acceptance rate below 10 percent, largely due to a conscious decision to reduce the total number of students offered admission, aiming for a marginally smaller incoming class.
OPTIMIZING YOUR ADMISSIONS STRATEGY
Given the surge in application volumes and consistently decreasing acceptance rates, students might feel discouraged, believing that their chances of getting into their preferred college are slim. However, even in the face of daunting statistics like NYU's 120,000 applications, it's worth remembering that every application is considered, and individual efforts to stand out can make a difference.
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